Expect ships to get bigger in 2015 even as overcapacity persists, and this will also have implications for port congestion too. Freight rate volatility shows no sign of changing on the major trade lanes.
1. Overcapacity
The global containership industry has beenblighted by overcapacity over the last few years and the problem looks set to continue in 2015.
According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, more than 1.9m teu is set to be added to the global container fleet next year.
This represents an increase in the total container fleet of 10% and many of these vessels will be in the larger size categories.
Some of this increase may be offset by scrapping activity, but deletions are unlikely to exceed the record levels recorded in 2013 when 2.7% of the fleet was sent to the breakers' yards.
This year a further 2.3% of the containership fleet was scrapped.
Next year, we expect a further slowdown in scrapping activity with 2% of the fleet projected to be sent to the breakers.
All this means overall net fleet growth for 2015 will come in at 8.8%, exceeding demand growth of an estimated 6%-7% and heightening the overcapacity situation
But there is one bright light at the end of this very long tunnel; only 900,500 teu is due to be delivered in 2016, representing fleet growth of 4.5%.
Scrapping is likely to drag this figure down further and demand growth is likely to be around the 7% mark once again, analysts say.
This should improve supply-demand equilibrium in 2016.
2. Consolidation
The container shipping industry has been crying out for consolidation as overcapacity and high fuel costs have conspired to cause the vast majority of carriers to report losses.
Consolidation among the bigger players is difficult to achieve because of the high level of state ownership and the complexity of bringing two of the largest shipping lines together.
That said, deals are being done; Hapag-Lloyd and CSAV, Hamburg Süd and CCNI, CMA CGM and OPDR and Horizon Lines and Matson are the major deals announced in 2014.
Next year the larger players may prefer to utilise alliances rather than take up acquisition opportunities, but there are still opportunities with regional specialists and compelling reasons to pursue them.
For example, improving economic forecasts is creating more confidence; multinational shippers now require global shipping operations to access the growing middle class in developing and emerging economies; and investment institutions are examining investment opportunities.
3. Congestion
Congestion, backlogs and bottlenecking have been the subject of much concern throughout 2014 at ports across the globe.
Industry commentators placed the blame firmly on bigger ships and the larger volumes of cargo being passed across the docks in one chunk.
However, with vessel upsizing set to continue throughout next year, not just on the major trades, but also on the regional and smaller trades due to cascading, congestion and delays at ports are not going away any time soon.
4. Rates
There is little sign that freight-rate volatility will change on the major trade lanes in 2015 with no indication as yet that lines will change their marketing or sales ploys.
With bigger vessels coming on stream, lines will be under pressure to make sure slots are filled and external factors such as congestion, sulphur surcharges and seasonal demand will mean that lines will look to general rate increases to drive box prices.
5. Ship sizes
Expect containership capacities to continue to head upwards, with the 20,000 teu mark surpassed as lines strive for economies of scale and lower slot costs.
There are no immediate technical barriers to larger ships, most experts predicting that boxship sizes have further to go before port and land-side infrastructure constraints put a ceiling on slot capacity.
That is likely to be around the 24,000 teu.
The largest ship today is the 19,224 teu MSC Oscar, which will enter service in late January, overtaking China Shipping’s 19,100 teu CSCL Globe and Maersk’s 18,270 teu Triple-Es.
A number of lines now have 18,000 teu-class ships on order, but these can easily be modified to a theoretical 20,000 teu, so some of this size may already be under construction.
Meanwhile G6 members MOL and Hapag-Lloyd are both very close to ordering what could be the first official 20,000 teu ships, with others probably not far behind.
6. Ship speeds
WHEN vessels started to reduce speed some eight years as oil prices soared, slow steaming was regarded as something of a short-term gimmick, as containerships cut back from around 26 knots to nearer 22 knots to burn less fuel.
Today, super-slow steaming is the norm, low charter rates enabling lines to hire extra tonnage to maintain weekly schedules and still save money.
But with oil prices on the slide, will ships start to speed up again?
Industry leaders are divided; Maersk chief executive Soren Skou extols the benefits of very slow ship speeds for environmental and cost reasons, whereas Seaspan boss Gerry Wang expects some acceleration.
In the highly competitive world of container shipping where lines are constantly seeking ways to outflank each other, it seems a fair bet that carriers may take the opportunity to bring back some express services if, as seems highly likely, bunker prices continue to weaken.
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